UK Weather Agency Warns of Strongest El Niño in Over a Century, HK Autumn Temps to Break Records
AM730 · 2 SOURCESabout 1 hour ago2 MIN
Summary
The UK Met Office has issued a stark warning that this year's El Niño phenomenon could be the strongest in over a century, with sea surface temperatures set to rise to unprecedented levels. The long-range forecasting chief Adam Scaife described it as an unprecedented event, noting that such a strong El Niño signal has never appeared in their forecasts before. The temperature anomaly in the tropical Eastern Pacific has already exceeded 2 degrees Celsius above baseline, and climate models indicate this will trigger severe droughts across South America and the Western Pacific. Separately, Green Power analysis of Hong Kong's two previous super El Niño events in 1997/98 and 2015/16 shows autumn temperatures rose by 0.7 to 0.9 degrees above their respective five-year averages, prompting warnings that this year's autumn temperatures could break records at 27 degrees Celsius or above.
Key Points
- The UK Met Office long-range forecasting head Adam Scaife stated that this El Niño will be "the strongest in over 100 years" and an unprecedented event
- Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Eastern Pacific are currently about 2 degrees Celsius above baseline and 2.6 degrees above the 30-year rolling average
- The phenomenon triggers changes in global wind patterns, atmospheric pressure, and rainfall distribution when the Eastern Pacific warms by 0.5 degrees Celsius above baseline
- Green Power Director Ryan Cheng advised the government, public, and various sectors not to be complacent and to prepare for health risks from prolonged high temperatures
- During the 2015 super El Niño year, Hong Kong's autumn average temperature reached 26.1 degrees Celsius, 0.9 degrees above the five-year average
Why It Matters
The unprecedented strength of this El Niño event carries far-reaching implications for global food security and climate systems beyond short-term weather forecasts. For Hong Kong residents, the prospect of autumn temperatures reaching 27 degrees Celsius or higher means extended exposure to heat-related health risks, including increased strain on healthcare services and disruption to daily life during what traditionally would be cooler months .
The unprecedented strength of this El Niño event carries far-reaching implications for global food security and climate systems beyond short-term weather forecasts. For Hong Kong residents, the prospect of autumn temperatures reaching 27 degrees Celsius or higher means extended exposure to heat-related health risks, including increased strain on healthcare services and disruption to daily life during what traditionally would be cooler months .