Hong Kong on Alert as Broad Trough May Spawn Tropical Cyclones Next Week
HK01 · 1 SOURCESabout 1 hour ago2 MIN
Summary
The Hong Kong Observatory has cautioned that a broad low-pressure trough expected to affect the northern South China Sea and waters east of Taiwan may harbor low-pressure zones capable of developing into tropical cyclones . Scientific officers wrote in the Observatory's "Weather Diary" column on Friday that while sea surface temperatures in the northern South China Sea remain warm enough to support development, other atmospheric conditions must also align . The timing could bring tropical cyclone activity close to Hong Kong by next Friday, March 21 .
Key Points
- Computer forecast models disagree on tropical cyclone development: the European model predicts only the South China Sea will produce one, while the US model forecasts activity in both the South China Sea and Pacific
- European AI model AIFS suggests the South China Sea system may interact with another in the East China Sea, potentially pulling systems northeastward
- Development depends on two critical factors: weak vertical wind shear and strong upper-level divergence working in tandem
- If two low-pressure systems develop simultaneously, they would compete for atmospheric and oceanic energy resources, affecting their final intensity
- Yellow rainstorm warning was issued Friday morning as a severe thunderstorm band brought over 70mm of rainfall to southern islands
Why It Matters
With mainland China's Central Meteorological Administration predicting one to two tropical cyclones to form in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea within the next 10 days, Hong Kong faces a genuine typhoon threat next week . The interaction between potential dual systems could significantly alter wind direction and rainfall patterns for the Pearl River Delta, making preparation uncertain for residents and authorities alike.
With mainland China's Central Meteorological Administration predicting one to two tropical cyclones to form in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea within the next 10 days, Hong Kong faces a genuine typhoon threat next week . The interaction between potential dual systems could significantly alter wind direction and rainfall patterns for the Pearl River Delta, making preparation uncertain for residents and authorities alike.