HashKey Sees Crypto Market in Late Bear Phase
SingTao · 1 SOURCESabout 1 hour ago2 MIN
Summary
HashKey Research Institute argues that the crypto market is no longer in the most violent phase of the downturn and is instead in a late-bear, bottom-building period . Bitcoin has retreated about 50% from its record high near US$126,000 in October 2025 and has spent close to ten months adjusting, with prices stabilizing around US$63,000 to US$64,000 in early August 2026 . The institute says historical four-year cycle patterns suggest the market is around 80% through the typical top-to-bottom timeline, but it stresses that a new bull market cannot be confirmed until key resistance levels are reclaimed and capital flows improve .
Key Points
- Bitcoin peaked near US$126,000 around October 2025, fell to about US$61,000 by June 2026, and steadied near US$63,000 to US$64,000 in early August .
- HashKey compares this drawdown with earlier cycles: about 83.6% in 2018–19, 76.7% in 2022–23, and roughly 50% to 51% so far now .
- Previous bear markets took roughly 350 to 385 days from peak to final low, averaging about 365 days; this cycle has lasted around 300 days .
- The report identifies US$69,000 as the short-term holder cost basis and US$76,000 as the realized market average, both key recovery thresholds .
- Support indicators include the 200-week moving average near US$62,400 and realized price near US$53,300, while spot and futures turnover sit near the 0.3 percentile .
Why It Matters
The analysis suggests crypto investors may be closer to a prolonged base-building phase than to either a fresh crash or a confirmed new uptrend, making patience and discipline more important than aggressive bottom-calling . For Hong Kong, the report frames the bear market as a test of whether virtual assets can evolve from speculative instruments into regulated, auditable financial infrastructure under the city’s licensing regime .