Hong Kong Government Upgrades 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 3.5-4.5%
AM730 · 1 SOURCESabout 1 hour ago2 MIN
Summary
The Hong Kong government announced on Thursday an upward revision of its 2026 full-year GDP growth forecast to 3.5-4.5%, reflecting stronger-than-expected economic performance in the first half of the year. The revision marks a one-percentage-point increase from the May forecast range of 2.5-3.5% .
Key Points
- Second quarter GDP grew 4.3% year-on-year, following first quarter growth of 5.9%, bringing first half growth to 5.1%—the strongest half-year performance in nearly five years
- Goods exports surged 28.9% year-on-year in real terms in Q2, fueled by robust global demand for AI-related electronics, while services exports expanded 3.4%
- Private consumption expenditure rose 2.8% year-on-year in Q2, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of expansion, with total investment expenditure up 4.4%
- The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7% for Q2, with underemployment at 1.6%, indicating a stable labor market
- Inflation forecasts are maintained at 2.5% (basic) and 2.6% (overall) for 2026, though rising oil prices and Middle East tensions add uncertainty to the outlook
Why It Matters
The upgraded forecast signals Hong Kong's economic recovery is gaining traction, with external trade performance exceeding expectations amid the global AI boom. Stable employment and resilient domestic demand provide a solid foundation for sustained growth through the second half of the year, positioning the city to benefit from continued strong demand for technology-related exports and services .
The upgraded forecast signals Hong Kong's economic recovery is gaining traction, with external trade performance exceeding expectations amid the global AI boom. Stable employment and resilient domestic demand provide a solid foundation for sustained growth through the second half of the year, positioning the city to benefit from continued strong demand for technology-related exports and services .