Midland Realty Founder Sees HK Property Market Bottoming, Entering Boom Phase
SingTao · 1 SOURCESabout 1 hour ago2 MIN
Summary
Midland Realty founder Sze Yong-qing said at the Asian Investment Summit that Hong Kong's residential property market has bottomed out and recovered since 2025 after adjustment from 2021 to 2024. Both end-users and investors are returning to the market, with transaction volume increasing significantly, marking the market's transition from recovery to boom phase . Sze divides property market cycles into four stages: recovery, boom, crisis, and depression. He noted that with end-users and investors both entering the market and increasing transactions, Hong Kong has entered the boom phase . He warned that when property prices rise out of sync with end-users' purchasing power and only investors and speculators remain, the market will enter the crisis phase .
Key Points
- Hong Kong residential prices adjusted from 2021 to 2024, with recovery beginning in 2025 as end-users and investors returned, driving up transaction volumes
- Sze identified three property market problems: oversupply, excessive borrowing, and excessive pricing, with high prices being easiest to resolve through price adjustments
- Approximately 65% of Hong Kong homeowners have fully paid their mortgages while only about 35% still owe banks, with residential vacancy at only 4%
- Sze emphasized that timing matters more than price in real estate investment, cautioning investors against trying to capture the "last dollar" in a rising market
- For mainland property, oversupply is the main issue, with housing inventory in some regions far exceeding local household numbers, requiring years to digest
Why It Matters
For Hong Kong property owners and prospective buyers, Sze's analysis signals that the market has passed its most difficult phase and entered an expansion period, potentially affecting investment strategies and property-related financial decisions . The contrasting outlook between Hong Kong's price-correction-driven recovery and mainland China's oversupply challenges highlights the different structural issues facing the two markets, with implications for cross-border property investment decisions .
For Hong Kong property owners and prospective buyers, Sze's analysis signals that the market has passed its most difficult phase and entered an expansion period, potentially affecting investment strategies and property-related financial decisions . The contrasting outlook between Hong Kong's price-correction-driven recovery and mainland China's oversupply challenges highlights the different structural issues facing the two markets, with implications for cross-border property investment decisions .